"Et Tu, ALDI ScoMo?" Asks Sussan

ERROL PARKER | Editor-at-large | Contact

There is a lot of movement inside the federal Coalition at the moment, but very little motion.

People are talking. Names are being floated. Numbers are being counted and re-counted. The Nationals have left the room to take on the red menace head on, it seems. The Liberals are pretending this is all very normal. Yet the situation remains frozen around one central fact. Nothing actually happens until Ted O'Brien decides that it does.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is widely understood to be under pressure. Her leadership has been weakened by the Coalition’s breakdown and by polling that suggests voters remain unconvinced. Ambitious colleagues have been circling, with Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie spoken about openly as alternatives. Still, the knives remain largely ceremonial.

That is because the Queensland LNP bloc remains loyal, and the Queensland LNP bloc answers to O’Brien. Inside the party room he is known, not entirely affectionately, as ALDI ScoMo. The same look but half the price. Just as effectice. Less likely to make a scene. More dangerous for that reason.

O’Brien has so far played the role of the loyal deputy. He speaks of stability. He urges patience. He tells colleagues that leadership churn will not solve structural problems. This has had the effect of keeping Ley upright, even as the ground beneath her continues to shift. This is straight out of the SccoMo playbook.

But it has also made him the most important figure in the room. If Taylor moved tomorrow, it would look factional. If Hastie moved, it would look ideological. If O’Brien moved, it would look inevitable.

Those close to the party say that if he ever does turn, it will not be framed as ambition. It will be described as duty. It will be delivered calmly. It will be explained as necessary. And it will end the argument instantly. Because he might be the new opposition leader himself.

Until then, Ley remains in place, her leadership sustained by the man standing closest to her. Close enough to protect. Close enough to strike.

More to come.