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Member for New England and recent One Nation recruit Barnaby Joyce is understood to have spent the weekend doing the numbers, following the release of a Resolve Political Monitor showing the party's primary vote had slipped two points to 22 per cent.
The dip, while well within the margin of error, has nonetheless been seized upon by internal critics who say it vindicates long-standing concerns about the current direction of Pauline Hanson's One Nation.
Leadership speculation has dogged Senator Hanson since a widely-panned appearance on Sky News earlier this month, in which she struggled to answer a series of questions her office had been provided in advance. Party sources say the interview "crystallised a number of things" for the partyroom and that a growing number of colleagues have quietly come to the view that a woman is simply not up to the demands of leading Pauline Hanson's One Nation in the current climate.
#PHONspill began trending on Sunday evening after several backsenators were seen entering Joyce's office carrying manila folders.
Joyce, who joined the party just a few weeks ago really, is understood to be reluctantly available. Allies say he has not sought the leadership but will not stand in the way of colleagues who feel the party requires more experienced hands at the wheel.
Should the challenge proceed as expected on Tuesday, Joyce is likely to thank Senator Hanson for her years of service to Pauline Hanson's One Nation before confirming that, effective immediately, the party will trade as Barnaby Joyce's One Nation.
Hanson is expected to be offered a position in the outer shadow ministry, where sources indicate she will take up the newly-created portfolio of Shadow Minister for Blaming Every Truck Crash on Indian Drivers, a role for which party elders say she remains uniquely qualified.
Senator Hanson's office was contacted for comment but have yet to receive a reply.
More to come.