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As poll numbers shift, the Federal Opposition are growing increasingly nervous about a Queensland revolt at the May 3 election.

Once viewed as the the swing-state that decided Federal Elections, the Coalition have lulled themselves into a false sense of security in Queensland, simply because Peter Dutton is from there.

But Queenslanders don’t like doing what they are told.

Unfortunately for Dutton, the start of his 2025 Federal Election campaign was instantly tarred by two very avoidable gaffes that Queenslanders perceived as treasonous.

Firstly, by fleeing his North Brisbane electorate on the eve of Cyclone Alfred’s arrival to attend a Liberal Party fundraiser event with billionaire donors in Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs.

And two, by admitting that he ‘wants to live in Sydney’ while appearing on Kyle And Jackie-O’s radio show.

These two clangers left a bad taste in the mouth of Queenslanders, who are now taking great pleasure in frustrating Peter Dutton’s political ambitions.

This is most evident in the fact that Dutton’s own seat appears to be the most likely to vote against him.

In her third crack at winning Dutton’s North Brisbane electorate of Dickson, Labor candidate Ali France only has to claw back 1.7% of the vote.

A new poll had France ahead of Dutton on a two-party preferred basis at 52 to 48 per cent. This is not helped by the inclusion of a wildly popular independent candidate, Ellie Smith, who appears to be peeling off moderate Liberal voters. The Greens have also put on formidable campaign after entering their own horse in the race.

Meanwhile, Albanese has doubled his lead over Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 46 to 30 per cent nationally. Surveys suggest this is because voters do not like Trump-like style of politics.

However, in the once safe Coalition seats of rural and outer-metro Queensland, it seems the number one concern up north his Dutton’s poorly thought-through nuclear power plan, which Queenslanders appear to hate more than they hated anyone from New South Wales and Victoria who crossed the border with a runny nose in 2021.

It appears that the Coalition has vastly underestimated Queensland’s famous ‘none of that up here’ attitude.

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